Latam forecasted to grow 2,2% in 2015

This moderate rise will take place in the context of the global economy_s slow and heterogeneous recovery, with...

This moderate rise will take place in the context of the global economy_s slow and heterogeneous recovery, with downward pressure on commodity prices and little dynamism in the region_s external demand as well as an increase in financial uncertainty.

The evolution of the global economy will have different impacts among countries and sub-regions in 2015, as it did throughout 2014. Central America plus Haiti and the Spanish-speaking Caribbean are expected to grow at a rate of 4.1%, South America at 1.8%, and the English-speaking Caribbean at 2.2%.

The countries leading the regional expansion next year will be Panama, with an increase in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 7.0%, Bolivia (5.5%), Peru, the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua (5.0%).

In 2014, average regional growth was just 1.1%, marking the smallest expansion since 2009. The region_s performance shows great heterogeneity among countries and sub-regions: Central America plus Haiti and the Spanish-speaking Caribbean grew 3.7%, South America 0.7%, and the English-speaking Caribbean 1.9%.

In fiscal terms, Latin America will register a slight increase in its deficit to 2.7% of GDP in 2014 from 2.4% in 2013, while the Caribbean will reduce its deficit to 3.9% in 2014 from 4.1% last year. In addition, the public debt of the region_s countries will remain at low and stable levels, averaging around 32% of GDP.

Meanwhile, accumulated regional inflation in the 12 months to October was 9.4% on average, with a very diverse performance among countries, and the urban open unemployment rate will register a fresh decline to 6.0% from 6.2% the previous year, despite the weak job creation resulting from low economic growth.

The deceleration in investment observed since 2011, and which showed a roughly 3.5% contraction during 2014, is an important factor in the decline of the GDP growth rate.

These figures were presented during a press conference at ECLAC_s headquarters in Santiago, Chile, by the Commission_s Executive Secretary, Alicia Barcena, and are part of the annual report Preliminary Review of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2014, which will be published soon.

_To invigorate economic growth and stop deceleration in the global economy_s current context entails significant challenges for the region,_ Alicia Barcena said during the press conference. _Among these, it is necessary to revive domestic demand prioritizing the dynamics of investment. This should impact positively on the economies_ productivity and competitiveness,_ she added.

To that effect, ECLAC proposes expanding the countercyclical macroeconomic architecture to incorporate mechanisms that protect investment financing, particularly that of infrastructure, through the different phases of the cycle.

Merco Press |

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