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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will assume a new six-year presidential term next Thursday, January 10
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will assume a new six-year presidential term next Thursday, January 10, and a web of rumors looms over the scenarios or possibilities he will take on economic policies. While the country continues being the protagonist in a crisis that devours the purchasing power of the workers and estimated hyperinflation of 10000% for this year, according to estimations of the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
Leer en español: Estas son las opiniones sobre la nueva toma de posesión en Venezuela
Although a Plan for the first semester of 2019 has been announced, which includes combating corruption and inflation, in addition to making a new call to dialogue to sectors of opposition to its government, the geopolitical and diplomatic situation of the Caribbean country it seems to be determined by the actions that are generated as of January 10.
40 countries say they do not recognize Maduro
The first perspective is concrete and exposes an outward scenario, 40 countries have said they will not recognize Nicolás Maduro, leaving in a somewhat ambiguous position the legitimacy of his government.
Something is true and is put on the debate in different points: what develops from then on will depend on the ability to maneuver not only the interventionist intentions of the US, if they get the necessary support to put even more pressure on the Maduro government, combined with the motion of censure by the OAS (Organization of American States). This organization described as "fraudulent" and "illegitimate" the reelection of the Venezuelan president, in addition to the pressure exerted by the Lima Group (14 countries) and the EU (European Union) who also lifted several sanctions against the government of Venezuela in 2018.
If the diplomatic rupture of these countries is generated, the least will be diplomacy, because an even greater pressure will be served in economic and commercial terms given the narrow situation of Venezuela, it will not be beneficial and will hit more the stability of the population.
China and Russia are important actors in the map, given the growing economic, commercial link that exists between countries, they counterbalance the current political situation.
Although Colombian President Iván Duque affirmed in an official statement that he would leave the diplomatic channel "open" with Venezuela. Meanwhile, a position of Colombia and the Lima Group is expected after its meeting scheduled for this January 4.
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A supposed vacuum of power
Another of the hypotheses that is spoken of is that of a power vacuum , it is an internal perspective given that the National Assembly of Venezuela (AN) does not recognize the elections of last May and affirms that they will not recognize the takeover of Maduro, what in administrative terms in the country means that the president of the AN must assume the position temporarily and call new presidential elections.
For his part, the deputy to the National Assembly of Venezuela, Ezequiel Perez Roa told the newspaper El Universal that "the government that is proclaimed on January 10, 2019, is an illegitimate government, because those presidential elections, held in past months they were ordered by a fraudulent National Constituent Assembly, whose organ is outside the constitutional framework."
Something important is the correlation of forces of the country's political factions, in which an opposition is still fragmented, dispersed and without agreement that translates into little popular support despite the concrete discontent of the Venezuelan people and the faction of the ruling party that still with social unrest remains and shows of them are the last elections to councils on December 9.
The third actor in the conflict
What happens from January 10 will define a course for the Venezuelan people, will be determined by the level of popular discontent, the organization of political actors, in addition to the level of maneuverability, support or rejection of the inauguration of Nicolás Maduro and the consequent measures that are assumed in the economic plane.
Although "the economic situation of the country will deteriorate much more in 2019" in the words of Luis Vicente León, president of Datanalisis expresses "that no one emerges unharmed from a crisis of this magnitude".
For some, the negotiation between government and opposition is the most viable response to the situation of governability, the negotiation specialist Igor Cuotto, says that the international community "is what will generate an eventual negotiation between the opposition and the government."
LatinAmerican Post | Karen Rodríguez
Translated from "Perspectivas en torno a una nueva toma de posesión en Venezuela"