Hilary Clinton is now leading the polls

Last week's DNC has the Democratic candidate leading the national polling average. 

It is normal for candidates to boost their poll numbers after their party's national conventions. It happened last week with Donald Trump, as the RNC had just ended and the Democratic National Committee charwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned after leaked DNC emails showed the committee favoring Hilary Clinton over Bernie Sanders.

Starting this week The New York Times national polling average puts Hilary Clinton ahead with 44% against 41% of Donald Trump. Their average uses all the polls listed in The Huffington Post's polling database, giving the most recent ones and the ones with larger sample sizes greater weight in computing the averages.

Despite being on the lead BBC's Katty Kay has asked herself if maybe the Democrats are too confident. Her article gives some reasons why Democrats trust their candidate will win big in November.

- She has demographics going her way as the growing sector of the US population, non white people, tend to vote democrat. Instead white men sector, who votes Republican is shrinking.

-  Organization. The DNC had strong speakers, including President Barack Obama, his wife Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders, enhanced with stage craft and word perfect messaging.

- Luck. People following Clinton believe Trump is unelectable as he gets closer to Russia and condemns NATO.

Kay's message is "there are hurdles they may be underestimating." She refers to the way Trump has rewritten conventional political rules. Also  the fact both Democrats and Republicans want change leaves some doubt as to how strong will their desire be against  Clinton, a traditional establishment figure.

Next weeks will be crucial in determining which candidate takes the lead in the polls after the National Conventions buzz and enthusiasm washes away and remember there are only 99 days to go until voting day.

 

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