Primaries' results in 5 states left Clinton and Trump closer to their party's nomination, GOP candidates reduced to three after Rubio's Florida loss and Sanders campaign keeps hoping to "defy expectations"
Primaries' results in 5 states left Clinton and Trump closer to their party's nomination, GOP candidates reduced to three after Rubio's Florida loss and Sanders campaign keeps hoping to "defy expectations".
Our take on the Republican tend results:
? "Winner-takes-all" measure in Florida and Ohio gave all delegates to the winning candidate regardless if there was a close margin in the results. Although this wasn't the case, this lead to Rubio's retirement when his home state of Florida supported Donald Trump, who took the 99 delegates.
? Kasich on the other hand won Ohio's 66 delegates and even if he's the least supported candidate he said in a rally on Tuesday “It is unlikely that anybody is going to achieve enough delegates to avoid the convention”. He is considered as Republicans' last hope for stopping Trump and winning the party nomination as Ted Cruz is not liked by the republican insiders either.
? According to the polls, Hispanic voters in Florida were divided between Rubio and Trump with only a 2% margin 40% and 38% respectively. This demonstrated that regardless Trump's declarations on immigration he is winning this crucial vote.
What can we expect form this:
With less than 20 states left to vote Republican's race is pointing towards a tight finale, as Kasich said the nominee is most likely to be defined in the Cleveland convention rather that having an absolute winner, as Trump needs over 500 delegates to win the nomination.
With only three candidates left, the Republican Party hopes its mission to stop Donald Trump is accomplished. They have made it very clear Trump's nomination would be catastrophic for the party.
Moreover The Economist's Intelligence Unit (EIU) released a report measuring the risk of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. The analysis measures risk intensity in a scale from 1-25, Trump's election is being qualified as a 12.
In the event of Trump's victory his views on free trade and the alienation of Chia and Mexico could lead to a trade war. Also his right-wing stance on the Middle east and jihadi terrorism could be contra productive as measures like banning all Muslim travel to the US could be a strong recruitment tool for jihadi groups and strengthen their threat in the region.
EIU concludes "Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn."
On the Democrat side the results were:
? Hilary Clinton is securing her nomination as the Democratic Party Nominee after big wins in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Illinois. Her campaign has earned more votes than any other candidate in both parties with 1,577 so far.
? Her primary night speech in Palm Beach showed more confidence and even thanked Bernie Sanders for his 'vigorous' campaign. She emphasized candidates make "a lot of promises, but every candidate owes it to you to be clear and direct about what our plans will cost and how we're going to make it work. That is the difference between running for president and being a president".
? Bernie Sanders clear losses even in Missouri, lead to media speculation about weather his campaign is finished or not. Some networks, even decided not to show his speech and focus their attention in Trump's win. He remains in the race with 859 delegates.
? Regardless his recent results Sanders stated: "With more than half the delegates yet to be chosen and a calendar that favors us in the weeks and months to come we remain confident that our campaign is on a path to win the nomination." Hoping to keep defying expectations
What can we expect form this:
Sanders would need big margin victories in western states to beat Hilary Clinton, whereas this is not probable it remains possible. He would also need New York, California and Pennsylvania big wins. He remains as the dark horse of Democrat’s race.
Clinton is expected to win the presidential nomination, she enjoys support across most demographic groups and has strong financial backing, although Sanders' message on anti-inequality has resonated he hasn't achieve as much support.
The EIU forecasts Clinton would also win the presidential election if she was to compete against Trump. They give three reasons:
1. Ms Clinton will target Mr Trump's weaknesses—his temperament, his mixed business record, his bullying approach to diplomacy and his lack of political experience.
2. Trump will find it difficult to appeal to swing voters in the presidential election due to his polarization and overall dislike from the electorate.
3. Clinton having demographics in her side will help, as the US is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. Instead Trump's xenophobia and Islamophobia can be difficult to wave off.
LatinAmerican Post |