The future of Venezuela will start on December 6 of this year. Plan A will consist of winning the election or accept defeat by a minimum amount of votes. The Plan B foreseen by Montaner is similar to what happened to Wojciech Jaruzelski in Poland in the summer of 1989, in one word "Cheat"
The course of the future of Venezuela will start defining in only 28 days during a parliamentary election to be held on December 6 of this year.
By midnight on that date, when Tibisay Lucena, rector of the National Electoral Council (CNE), announces new members of the Parliament (aka National Assembly or AN) for the next five years, it will be clear if the Government resorted to its Plan A or B as explained by Carlos Alberto Montaner, a Cuban journalist and writer, in his article "The two plans of Nicolás Maduro" published in the news site Gentiuno a couple of days ago.
Montaner makes a portrait of the nation’s critical socio-political and economic reality, and describes how Venezuelans have become fed up with the aftermath of high prices and widespread shortages caused by the crisis.
He explains that the government of Maduro will follow an axiom of the Castro brothers: "The revolution will never surrender." He points out that "the revolution is a verbal construction that, in reality, means power. And power is what the revolution will never surrender."
A fine example that Maduro is certainly following this axiom are statements of winning the election "no matter what," or "assuming" that the opposition wins the Parliament he will govern through a civic-military union.
From there, Montaner raises the likelihood that the Government has a plan A and B for December 6.
He explains that Plan A will consist of "winning the election or accept defeat by a minimum amount of votes. How does it pull it off? By imprisoning or prohibiting opposition leaders that may talk many of their compatriots into casting their ballot on December 6 from participating in the election. That is the case, among others, of Leopoldo López and María Corina Machado. By manipulating voting machines. By generating false ID cards. By modifying constituencies to favor its own candidates. By abusing the media. By obstructing the voting process of the opposition in a thousand different ways." And warns that the purpose of this Plan is "to discourage democrats not to vote. They reckon that with all these tricks the election can be won or lost by a narrow margin. And, if they lose, they will buy a handful of dishonest lawmakers from the opposition at any price and thus continue hanging on to power."
Rumor has it that Plan A, with the ploys described by Montaner (and many others), is already in full development.
The Plan B foreseen by Montaner, if the avalanche of votes is of such magnitude that the Government will not be able to hide a resounding defeat, is similar to what "happened to Wojciech Jaruzelski in Poland in the summer of 1989." He "took all the advantages of power to crush the independent self-governing trade union Solidarity in a by-election limited to the Senate, but Lech Walesa and his democratic tribe obtained 95% of the vote and nearly all of the seats. The communist regime collapsed before the evidence of the widespread rejection."
Montaner claims that "Plan A is worse than Plan B. Plan A continues an agonizing charade that inevitably leads to a slow and painful death. Plan B has the advantage that it shamelessly exposes the totalitarian nature of this dictatorship and puts an end to the false story of a revolution of the oppressed. The story will be simply over for them."
Here are three aspects that will weigh regardless of the Plan the Government resorts to: 1) That unlike Poland the electoral process in Venezuela is not manual, and the counting of the ballots in the ballot boxes are not binding to certify or not the results. With the current electoral system in Venezuela, the valid and binding votes are cast by machines, which are handled and controlled by the authorities of a CNE biased in favor of the Government. 2) That the opposition wasted a golden opportunity by not leaving records of its observations during previous audits of electoral processes that could serve as evidence before the suspicion that the decision of the majority of Venezuelans has been violated. 3) That the Government does not allow independent international observation.
Bridging the gaps between Poland and Venezuela, is the answer of Montaner to the question "What Venezuelans should do?" right? "Just what the Poles did. Go out and vote massively. Bury this filth under a mountain of votes, and fight for every single vote at every single polling station, tirelessly and without fear."
Latin American Herald Tribune |