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This is the third time that former vice president, Joe Biden, has competed for the presidency. Several polls mark him as a favorite
Even though the presidential elections in the United States are made until November 3, 2020, the race for one of the most coveted positions has already begun. Since January of this year, several members of the opposition party, the Democrats, have announced their candidacies to be the representative of the party.
Leer en español: Estados Unidos: Joe Biden se lanza a la lucha por la presidencia
There are already 20 confirmed candidates, including Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, among others. Due to the large number of aspirants, most have opted for quite similar proposals such as, "promote universal health care, push for regulations to curb climate change, reduce inequality and improve conditions for the American middle class," according to with Quartz.
In the middle of the numerous candidacies, last Thursday, the vice presidential formula of Barack Obama, Joe Biden confirmed his participation in the elections. According to CNN, Biden, "probably has the best chance against any Democrat of those who run to win the nomination, but the other candidates combined have a significantly better chance than him."
In his Twitter account, he referred to his candidacy under the argument of recovering "the core values of this nation... our standing in the world... our very democracy... everything that has made America-- America-- is at stake. That's why today I'm announcing my candidacy for the President of the United States."
The core values of this nation… our standing in the world… our very democracy...everything that has made America -- America --is at stake. That’s why today I’m announcing my candidacy for President of the United States. #Joe2020 https://t.co/jzaQbyTEz3— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) 25 de abril de 2019
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What are its possibilities?
Despite profiling himself as a favorite for his recognition in the political arena, his approval ratings within his party "and the potential to raise large amounts of campaign money through traditional democrats," according to the BBC, play in against his long experience, his age, and his accusations of sexual harassment. Faced with the latter, he has only committed himself to "pay more attention but never with an official apology," as El Heraldo remarks.
However, under his discourse of being a 'unity' candidate, Biden could not only raise the money needed to finance his campaign, but to obtain the votes of the most relevant states. It is also important to remember that the party announced a series of 12 debates, which will start from June 2019 to 2020, throughout the country.
In order to participate, they will have to show that they have 1% or more support in surveys conducted by qualified universities or news organizations, to demonstrate that in their campaign they have received donations from 65,000 "unique donors and a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 states in the United States," as Vox explains.
Biden's plan is to comply with these requirements and to consolidate his victory around the month of March, the month in which the last debates will be held and while the candidates run out of money and of time. For New York Magazine, in a hypothetical scenario, "it could possibly end the campaigns of Kamala Harris and Cory Booker if he surpasses them among African-Americans in South Carolina, demonstrating their breadth of demographic and geographical support."
If this is done, Bernie could be the candidate for the Democratic Party and would face Donald Trump, who is seeking his second term. However, the same media adds that "his extensive list of heresies against progressive orthodoxy, from his anti-busing position in the 1990s to his support for the Iraq war" could cause him to lose votes from "progressive millennials eager for a new generation of leaders", as Quartz indicates.
In addition to that, according to several surveys, some candidates considered as eligible do not get as much support, while others that have generated a lot of enthusiasm among voters are not seen as candidates for particularly strong general elections. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden would be one of these cases, as it is not the first choice of voters.
While it is still too early to give an accurate prediction of his eligibility, Biden asked Barack Obama not to back his candidacy on the grounds that "Democrats should try to win the nomination on their own merits," as Infobae explains.
This nomination turns out to be the last option of the Democratic party to be able to overcome its opponent Donald Trump, who is expected to be the chosen one to represent the republicans, and as it is a tradition in the presidents of that country to repeat mandate. If the Democratic candidate wins, this party will govern the country in its entirety, taking into account that within Congress they are the majority and that the third most important position within the US government is in charge of Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat.
LatinAmerican Post | Laura Viviana Guevara Muñoz
Translated from "Estados Unidos: Joe Biden se lanza a la lucha por la presidencia"