These are some of the consequences of a military attack against Nicolás Maduro
During the last months, news agencies have published details of the meetings that President Donald Trump would have carried out with his advisers in order to analyze a possible military intervention in Venezuela. Although the idea is for many the only viable option to get Maduro out of power, the consequences would be devastating and the possible allies of Venezuela could get involved in case of a conflict.
This would not be the first time that the United States would unleash an armed conflict in a Latin American country aiming to return democracy. In 1989, the American giant invaded Panama to remove Manuel Noriega from power. Iran, Libya, Kosovo, and Yemen are other well-known examples on a global scale.
As for Venezuela, the idea of military intervention has been openly discussed since 1999 when Hugo Chávez assumed the presidency. However, many experts in international politics agree that activating such an operation would generate more problems than it could solve.
Which nations would support Venezuela?
Venezuela has small allies in the region such as Ecuador, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, but internationally Russia and China become important partners. In the case of Russia, under a program of strengthening and military cooperation signed between the parties in recent years, there has been a shipment to Venezuelan territory of at least 11 million dollars in sophisticated systems of missiles, artillery, rifles, fighter jets and logistic equipment.
China, on the other hand, has turned Venezuela into its first Latin American investment destination. According to official figures, since 2001, nearly 1,000 projects have been developed in industries such as oil, energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and agro-industry. In turn, China has expressed its willingness to support the South American nation in the event of an American invasion, albeit not with troops, aircraft carriers or weapons.
Despite this important trade alliance, international analysts believe that the aforementioned countries would not join the war in support of Venezuela, nor send their troops to the territory, since the debt of the oil country exceeds the limits, and although there is Black gold in between, Russia and China would not be interested in involving more armament or aircraft carriers.
Consequences of the attack
In the unlikely scenario of the attack, the war between the United States and its allies against Venezuela could last several years. Immigration would skyrocket, the crisis would escalate, and the recovery of the ravages left by the dictatorial policies of Nicolás Maduro, added to the confrontation, would take several decades, not only in Venezuela, but in other countries of the region like Colombia and Ecuador.
According to an article in The New York Times, Venezuela has 115,000 troops, 300 tanks of war, combat aircraft and the sophisticated anti-missile and weapons systems sent by Russia. In addition, it is estimated that 20% of the population still supports the government of Nicolás Maduro, so neutralizing the Venezuelan forces would not be as easy and fast as it is considered.
USA would have to send at least 500,000 men to the territory and have the strategic help of Colombia to ensure more efficient access to the neighboring nation. According to details given by analysts to the BBC, the investment of the North American country for this purpose would be between 200 thousand and 500 thousand million dollars, and at least 100 thousand lives would be lost, counting military on both sides and civilians.
What is the only exit from Venezuela?
As mentioned by many analysts, the only way out of Venezuela is the citizen resistance and the diplomatic pressure made through the resurgence of economic sanctions and officials and commercial isolation, but this last aspect could harm the US itself.
Venezuela is the country with the largest amount of proven oil reserves. It is estimated that it has 300 billion barrels of oil, an amount higher than that of Saudi Arabia. However, due to the crisis, the shortage and the political regime, every year about 500 thousand Venezuelans leave the country, according to statistics of the last report of National Migratory Trends in South America.
The United States Congress is the only entity that could approve a military intervention in other countries. There, both cameras must agree with the movement and once, Trump, along with the Pentagon, would have green light to deploy the operation. However, the act would be vetoed by the UN Security Council and considered illegal in the international framework. Although this would not be an impediment for the American giant, since it could not even proceed, as it did in the past with Iraq.
LatinAmerican Post I Krishna Jaramillo
Translated from “¿Apoyarían Rusia y China a Venezuela en un conflicto armado contra EE.UU?”
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